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Poll Geek

Due to the pressing constraints of history, this is of necessity the last referendum related essay. Only tangentially but hey, I’m at a computer, I’ve promised myself I’m bloody well going to write something and I’m receiving tetchy signals about how soon I need to get done and go and be sociable, so:

The Scottish independence referendum has highlighted the unimportance of polls, by simultaneously highlighting their importance. Bear with me.

You know how no-one south of the border was overly engaged until one poll, one single poll out of (at current count 1200) put the Yes campaign ahead by a single percentage point. And then they all went nuts. Uh-huh, we all recall the nuts-going, and a deeply unedifying spectacle it was. So, the importance of polls is this, they supply numerical totals by which people can keep score, they are an easy way to keep track. Once a Yes win became a microbial possibility everyone in Westminster lost, as they say in Scotland, the heid.

And now the unimportance. Last night three polls returned identical results, a narrow 2% lead for No. This afternoon another returned a 1% lead for No. This was reported as the Yes campaign narrowing the gap on No. If you really need me to sit down and talk you through why this is, in essence, unworthy of reporting (given that there is a 5% margin of error accounting for don’t-knows) then, I’m sorry, we’re not going to get on, good luck with everything.

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