Reframing the narrative

Watching the ongoing Dominic Cummings car-crash unfold has been an extended exercise in watching norms be subverted in real time. It'd be laughable if it wasn't so worrying. From the initial blush-free rebuttals of "fake news" right up to the flimsy excuses about test drives it has, from start to finish, been one of the least edifying displays of political re-positioning since the Iraq War and the dodgy dossier. Worse, perhaps, in that this is lying without shame, with a smile on its lips, with a nudge and a wink. Denial becomes admission becomes it doesn't matter though in the blink of an eye. Johnson produces glasses at a Press Conference, claiming that sight loss is a COVID-19 symptom. It's theatre, it's easily proven that he's long needed them, it doesn't matter. Cummings demonstrably breaks guidelines, he admits to it, it doesn't matter.

It is clear that Government strategy is the age old line-drawn-lets-move-on. And even if Cummings hasn't apologised, he's intimated contrition, accepted that people might be angry. Gove has been doing the media rounds this morning doing much the same thing. We understand, we don't agree, we get what you're saying, but it was reasonable. They calculate that this will be enough to keep him in position.

This gas-lighting strategy is reliant on the whole thing blowing over, but it isn't enough on its own. Too many people have abided by the rules, too many people have lost loved ones, missed funerals, not held the hand of their dying relative. Put simply, too many people have a very justifiable reason for being angry, and to have the government turn round and tell them that it's their own fault is a risky strategy.

Which is why a subtle reframing of the narrative is under way. Because if there's one culture war you can reliably ignite with a minimum of difficulty, it's Brexit. It's been fascinating (and horrifying) to see the Cummings debate reframed in Leave vs Remain terms. It started when the clergy started to condemn Cummings, on social media they quickly became "Remainer bishops". Account after account defends "our Dom", says he's too clever to be beaten by "Remoaners."

One would be forgiven for thinking that a betrayal of the Blitz-Spirit-all-in-it-together lockdown would be anathema for Brexiteers. After all, wrapping oneself in the flag is very much their thing, and Britain's collective effort to observe lockdown has been inspiring. It's been, until recently, largely immaculate. Most people have behaved impeccably. Even the much-abhorred panic-buying was vastly overstated, with only 6% of the population actually indulging in it. But this is to  misunderstand the depth of the chasm in the Brexit debate. To Brexiteers, Dom's the man that made it happen, and any threat to him is a threat to the whole project. He can't be allowed to fall

Naturally, with the revelations over Cummings coinciding with an understandable degree of fatigue, this popular observance of lockdown is now fraying. This suits Government attempts to get things open again, they can be seen to be bowing to popular opinion, it also shifts the blame for a second wave of infections squarely onto the shoulders of the public.

But that's just a handy side-effect from HMG's point of view. They didn't want this row erupting, and the easiest way to make it go away is to marginalise it. Represent the anger as the views of the minority, no matter how sizeable that minority may be. Indeed, you can represent a majority as a minority, in much the same way as 17.5 million Leave voters were represented as "the people" in a country of 66 million inhabitants. Insist, as Gove has, that "most reasonable people" will agree. It worked after Brexit, maybe it can work again this time, too. At the moment, it doesn't look like it, but Cummings has beaten the odds plenty of times before. Johnson's staked his political career on this happening again